Spotify investor says streaming market will quadruple in size to $40 billion by 2025
As Spotify preps for its long anticipated stock market listing, an investor in the digital music company has told his financial backers that streaming music is definitely the business, that it can only boom from here, and that's good news for everyone. Except traditional radio.

David Fiszel, founder of New York-based Honeycomb Asset Management, bigged up all things Spotify in a letter to his investors sent late last year, and which has now been seen by Business Insider. In it he states: "We believe streaming music will continue to grow at rates that far exceed investor expectations, with its market size quadrupling from $10 billion to $40 billion over the next eight years".

It's no secret that streaming music is a tricky business to be in for the loss-making service providers, what with the complexities of music licensing, the monthly royalty obligations to the music rights owners, and the costs of aggressive global growth. The aggressive global growth is required because - under the current model - streaming music is a scale game, with the business model being employed by the likes of Spotify only viable at massive scale.

If you want to be pessimistic, you can question whether even market leader Spotify can reach the kind of scale required to finally become a profitable business.

However, optimists reckon it can. And, once it's there, the high barriers to entering the streaming market will assure a small number of key players dominate. That means they'll ultimately be able to demand much better terms from a music industry by then utterly reliant on a small number of dominant platforms, while also starting to charge for the e-commerce, data and marketing services that are currently provided free of charge.

Obviously those with a stake in Spotify have to be optimists, especially as the stock market listing looms. "The music industry is reaching a key inflection point on both top-line and profitability", reckons Fiszel.

"The streaming music business model is fundamentally more attractive than the previous model", he adds, concluding: "Growth is open-ended and the 'total addressable market' is larger than investors expect".

Noting that streaming has already taken the recorded music industry back into growth after fifteen years of (initially steep) decline, Fiszel says "we are still in the early stages of this evolution". And everyone's a winner because streaming means the average consumer is now spending more on recorded music than in the physical era.

He's relying on Goldman Sachs - another Wall Street player whose gushing optimism about the streaming market is well known - for that last claim. "Per Goldman Sachs research" he writes, "the average consumer used to pay $50-60 per year to purchase five CDs. In the digital world, many US consumers are paying $120 per year for a $10/month subscription".

That's when he provides that super-glowing conclusion that "we believe streaming music will continue to grow at rates that far exceed investor expectations, with its market size quadrupling from $10 billion to $40 billion over the next eight years". Yeah, maybe.

If you're not sold on all this optimistic speak yet, think about the rise of the voice-activated smart speakers and how they are going to further the reach of the streaming music services! Oh, and the internet-connected car. Don't forget the internet-connected car! "Connected cars of the future will see streaming music as a replacement for terrestrial and satellite radio", Fiszel adds, delivering the one bit of doom in his letter, aimed at the traditional radio sector.

So, that's all nice isn't it? If only it can halt the flow of billion dollar mechanical royalty lawsuits in the US, maybe Spotify's glass of water really is half full.

By the way, if you want to know how streaming music is licensed, and how money flows through the system to artists, 'Dissecting The Digital Dollar' is now available in printed form.

BACK TO THE TOP OF THE BULLETIN

Little Mix lawsuit to test obligations of gig promoters under the Equality Act
A new lawsuit against Newark-based concert promoter LHG Live could test just how far live music firms must go in order to comply with the UK's Equality Act 2010, which states that adjustments must be made to ensure that disabled customers are not at a disadvantage.

LHG Live is facing legal action in relation to a Little Mix show it staged in Sussex last year. The mother of one Little Mix fan - Sally Reynolds - who attended the show and who is deaf, requested ahead of the concert that the promoter provide a British Sign Language interpreter. She was attending with two friends who are also deaf and who were likewise accompanying their children to the show. Reynolds said that the BSL interpreter was required to ensure she and her friends could properly experience and enjoy the concert.

The live firm initially offered an additional carer ticket for the show, saying she could use that ticket if she wanted to bring a BSL interpreter with her. However, Reynolds felt that it was the promoter's responsibility to provide the interpreter too. To that end she applied for a court injunction to force LHG Live to provide that service. Once a lawyer was involved, the promoter quickly agreed to hire the services of Performance Interpreting to ensure Reynolds and her friends could properly experience the concert.

However, that BSL interpreter was only provided for Little Mix's set and not the support acts. Which is why Reynolds is now taking additional legal action, arguing that by not providing a BSL interpreter for the full show, LHG Live was not fully complying with its obligations under the Equality Act.

Reynolds told the BBC: "I felt that we were really part of the Little Mix experience, but because it was so good I realised that we had missed out on the first two acts. So it was very much a disparity of experience compared with everyone else. We only got access to the last act. If you went to a film can you imagine only getting access to the last 20 minutes? We had paid for our tickets like everyone else".

Commenting on the legalities, the lawyer representing Reynolds, Chris Fry, added: "People with sensory impairment actually want to attend musical and sporting events just as anybody else does. The fact that you have a hearing impairment or sight loss doesn't mean that you don't want to be at the event. So it is important that venues and promoters recognise that the legal duties to make reasonable adjustments extend to them. It is an important way of making society more inclusive".

Commenting on the dispute, LHG Live said in a statement to the BBC: "We received a request from Sally Reynolds to supply an interpreter. We consulted with her recommended agency and agreed to provide the professional interpreter of her choice for the Little Mix show. This included specific staging and lighting, and a setlist in advance". It then added that it also provided upgraded tickets, access to private accessible toilets and all public announcements on giant screens either side of the main stage.

Little Mix themselves are not part of the legal action, though a spokesperson for the group said: "Little Mix strongly believe their concerts should be completely inclusive for all. The band welcome all fans to their shows, including those with hearing impairment, and encourage the promoters they work with to make provisions to ensure their fans can enjoy the concert experience".

Few would disagree that the live music industry should do everything it can to ensure its shows are fully accessible to deaf and disabled music fans, and through the work of organisations like Attitude Is Everything progress has been made in this domain in recent years. Though this case puts the spotlight on the question of quite how far venues and promoters should go to ensure deaf and disabled customers have access to the same experience, both morally and legally speaking.

--------------------------------------------------

Journalists hit out at LA police response to them interviewing Suge Knight
Nothing involving one-time hip hop mogul and Death Row Records founder Suge Knight is ever without drama. Two journalists involved in a TV documentary that will tell the story of the Death Row label and some its most famous artists have gone to court, accusing LA police of misconduct after officers seized files and demanded information.

Knight, of course, is currently facing murder charges in relation to the death in 2015 of a man called Terry Carter, following an incident that occurred near the set of the NWA biopic 'Straight Outta Compton', which was then in production.

Journalists Nora Donaghy and William Erb interviewed the incarcerated Knight as part of their TV project. It seems that LA police reckon that Knight's involvement in the programme may violate court orders relating to the murder charges.

To that end officers showed up at Donaghy and Erb's respective homes seeking files. The journalists have also been ordered to appear before a grand jury to answer questions about their interactions with Knight.

The journalists reckon that the demands made by police, and their heavy-handed approach so far, has been inappropriate, not to mention in violation of the so called 'shield laws' that allow journalists to protect their sources.

According to The Hollywood Reporter, Donaghy describes in a new court filing how police showed up at her home earlier this month. "One of the officers told me that I was required by the warrant to hand over my cell phone", she says. "They also asked me for my passcode and asked me to type the passcode into the phone in their presence to make sure it worked".

She goes on: "Believing I had no alternative and frightened by the unexpected arrival of two homicide officers at my home, early in the morning, I gave them my iPhone and the passcode and showed them it worked". The officers then took her phone which, Donaghy says, contains confidential correspondence relating to various journalistic investigations.

Police also showed up at Erb's home, serving a subpoena demanding he present himself to a grand jury for questioning within days. Lawyers for the two journalists say all this police activity represents a "shocking disregard of state law" and "is the kind of gross overreaching that California's shield law and related provisions have been designed to prevent".

The LA District Attorney's Office has defended the actions of the officers, while questioning the extent to which California's shield law applies in this case. But the journalists' lawyer Kelli Sager is having none of it.

In a motion seeking the return of seized items and a withdrawal of the grand jury subpoena, Sager writes: "The notion that government agents can seize a journalist's cell phone, force journalists to testify about individuals who provide information to them (or who facilitated such disclosures), and engage in draconian harassment of a television production company and its personnel is the kind of thing one might expect from a third-world dictatorship".

The motion goes on: "California's legislature and electorate, supported by decades of court decisions, expressly and emphatically forbid these practices. Consequently, it is surprising and disappointing that - even after being provided with the legal citations contained in this Motion - the DA refused to back down, forcing [the documentary's producer] to expend thousands of dollars in attorneys' fees to defend the rights of its journalists".

The legal filing then notes that all of these actions taken by the LA police seemingly relate not to the murder case against Knight, but to allegations he breached court orders by giving an interview. Which makes the heavy-handed approach of the officers even more inappropriate, Sager reckons.

"This is not a case where information is sought to locate a kidnapped child, capture a serial killer, or even convict an accused murderer", says the court filing. "Here, what is at stake is the alleged violation of a court order by a prisoner in giving an interview to a documentary television producer".

It remains to be seen how the courts respond to the journalists' requests in this extra sideshow to Knight's murder trial, which is also now imminent.

--------------------------------------------------

Family of Slipknot bassist settle negligence action against his former doctor
The family of late Slipknot bassist Paul Gray have settled a legal dispute with a doctor accused of negligence.

Gray's wife Brenna sued Dr Daniel Baldi over her husband's 2010 death as a result of an accidental drug overdose, claiming that the doctor was negligent in his treatment of the Slipknot man's addictions. But the lawsuit was dismissed because she had taken too long to go legal.

However, it then transpired that the couple's daughter, unborn at the time of Gray's death, could sue Baldi, because there is more flexibility on how quickly litigation needs to be filed when the plaintiff is a minor.

A new lawsuit was filed, and it is that legal action - which also named some other health care providers as defendants - that has now been settled. Papers were filed with the courts in Iowa on Monday confirming that a settlement had now been reached. A legal rep for Baldi then confirmed that terms of the settlement will not be made public.

BACK TO THE TOP OF THE BULLETIN

YouTube unites artist content under single subscription
YouTube is further ramping up the Official Artist Channels scheme it launched last year, which aims to bring all content relating to any one artist on the YouTube platform into one easily navigable place.

Artists might have multiple channels on YouTube - for example one managed by Vevo for official videos and another managed by label or management for promotional content - and they may also appear on third party channels too. The Official Artist Channels set up aims to make it easier for users to find all the content around any one act.

The innovation this week is that fans will now be able to subscribe to these aggregated channels, the aim being that a fan can get updates on all content relating to an artist via one subscription. "Uniting subscribers under one channel means you'll be able to go deeper and explore all of the content from the artists you love", says YouTube in a blog post on the new development.

"For fans looking for music from the artists they love, finding the Official Artist Channel for an artist will soon be as simple as searching for their name on YouTube", it goes on. "You can also identify the Official Artist Channel by looking for the artist icon (the musical note) in YouTube search and on the channel page".

Quite what the expansion of the Official Artist Channels scheme means for YouTube's relationship with Vevo isn't clear. The Sony/Universal-owned music video firm manages the 'official' YouTube channels of many artists on behalf of their labels. But the official Vevo artist channels now form part of the official YouTube channels. And that's official.

Then, of course, there are YouTube's much rumoured plans to launch a standalone music streaming service this year. Could this all be linked to that? Though Chief Business Officer Robert Kyncl did recently play down those rumours.

Anyway, here's a short video explaining Official Artist Channels.

BACK TO THE TOP OF THE BULLETIN

OfCom wonders how new 'new music' should be
UK media regulator OfCom has announced it is going to have good long ponder over quite how new 'new music' needs to be to qualify as 'new music'. The pondering is specifically in relation to the new music obligations of BBC stations Radio 1 and Radio 2.

OfCom is now responsible for setting each BBC radio station's 'operating licence', which sets out public service requirements. The respective operating licences of Radio 1 and Radio 2 include an obligation to ensure a "significant proportion" of music output is 'new music'. But what the fuck do we mean by 'new music'?

Note's OfCom: "To date, whether a song qualifies as 'new' on these stations has been primarily determined by the date it was physically released. In recent years, however, physical sales have increasingly given way to downloads and streaming services, and we consider it appropriate to amend the definition of 'new music' to take account of these changes".

Sounds like fun. To that end, the media regulator has opened up one of those consultations everyone loves so much. "This licence variation consultation seeks views on our proposals to update the definition of 'new music' used to assess Radio 1 and Radio 2's compliance with their respective requirements and to adjust the associated new music obligation for Radio 1".

More information on the consultation is available here. Let's all try to get 'new music' defined as "tracks uploaded to the internet yesterday". That'd make things more eclectic on Radio 1 and 2 wouldn't it? I mean, unlistenable, but more eclectic.

BACK TO THE TOP OF THE BULLETIN

Classically Smiths shows called off as Joyce and Gannon pull out too
Well, this has been quite the rollercoaster. On Monday morning it was announced that three former members of the Smiths were reuniting for a new orchestral live show. By the following afternoon the whole thing had collapsed. There will now be no show at all.

Following hints over the weekend that Smiths bassist Andy Rourke, drummer Mike Joyce and short-lived guitarist Craig Gannon were involved in a new project, on Monday morning it was announced that the three of them would be performing Smiths songs live, with the Manchester Camerata Orchestra filling in for Morrissey and Johnny Marr.

Three live dates were confirmed, with the promise of a UK tour to follow. Despite the lack of two fairly key members of the group, people seemed to be excited about the offering. People like those nostalgic orchestral shows, don't they? The Manchester Camerata Orchestra did that Hacienda one too.

However, after the show was announced, Andy Rourke issued a statement claiming that he had no involvement in the show and had never signed up to take part in it at all. This despite being quoted in the press release saying how very excited about it all he was.

Now Joyce and Gannon have both pulled out too, resulting in the shows being cancelled. Both seem to have understood Rourke to be taking part until very close to the big announcement. They were then told not to mention their former bandmate at a press conference.

"I entered into agreement in good faith to perform these shows with Andy Rourke and Craig Gannon", said Joyce in a statement. "Unfortunately it became apparent very late that Andy would not be taking part. I agreed with Andy that I would take part in the press conference and inform people that he would not be taking part".

"Unfortunately", Joyce continued, "on the morning of the press conference I was informed I would not be able to say this. I therefore agreed to take part in the press interviews but did so without discussing Andy's participation in the venture at any point during all TV, radio and print interviews".

He continued: "After much deliberation and soul searching I have decided that without Andy, an integral part of why I agreed to take part in the first place, I have come to this difficult decision".

He signed off by saying that he hoped the shows were a success, despite his decision to pull out. But when Gannon issued his own statement a short time later, he announced that the shows were all off.

Gannon disputed Rourke's claim that he had never agreed to be involved in the project, saying: "Five months ago myself, Mike Joyce and Andy Rourke all agreed to be a part of this project as the core three which was why it all went ahead. Unfortunately Andy pulled out at the very last minute".

He too confirmed that he and Joyce had been told not to mention Rourke's lack of involvement at the press conference, saying that "the last thing we wanted was to mislead anyone".

In conclusion, he said: "This is disappointing as we were all really excited about putting on these shows. I for one have been working solidly on this project for the last five months and it's a shame that it's fallen apart in this way".

Joel Perry of the company behind the Classically Smiths shows, Bad Productions, later confirmed via email that all the shows had been cancelled.

--------------------------------------------------

Slayer confirm split after farewell tour
Slayer have confirmed that they are to split after a farewell world tour, nearly four decades since the band formed in 1981.

Talking up various achievements from over their 37 years, including "being one of the four bands that defined an entire musical genre and being the band that other heavy acts are measured against and aspire to", the band said in a statement that "the age of Slayer, one of the greatest thrash/metal/punk bands of this or any age, is coming to an end".

They confirmed that they "will do one last concert tour around the globe to thank their fans for all of their support over the years, for making the last three-and-a-half decades so packed with good times and unforgettable experiences, and will then move on".

So far only North American dates for the tour, with support from Lamb of God, Anthrax, Behemoth and Testament, have been announced.

BACK TO THE TOP OF THE BULLETIN

Apple Homepod, Christian O'Connell, Britney Spears, more

Other notable announcements and developments today...

• Universal Music Canada has promoted Kristen Burke to Executive Vice President and General Manager. She was previously Senior Vice President of Marketing. "Kristen is the coach and mentor that our artists want in their corner", says CEO Jeffrey Remedios.

• Ezekiel 'Zeke' Lewis has joined Sony's Epic Records in the US as Executive Vice President of A&R, moving over from Universal's Motown label. "I am excited", says Lewis.

• Napster, which is still a thing, has named Venesa Hoffmann as its new VP Business Development & Operations for EMEA. "I'm THRILLED to join Napster at such an exciting time in the company's history", says Hoffmann.

• Apple's HomePod speaker will finally go on sale in the UK, US and Australia on 9 Feb. Unless it doesn't. But it looks like it will.

• Christian O'Connell has announced he is standing down as breakfast show host on Absolute Radio after twelve years with the station. Radio Today reckons he might be heading for a new radio gig in Australia.

• Lil Wayne has released new track 'Big Bad Wolf', taken from newly completed mixtape 'Dedication 6 Reloaded'. No release date has been announced for said mixtape, the follow-up to 'Dedication6', released at Christmas.

• A$AP Rocky has released new track 'Five Stars', the first from an as-yet-unannounced new project.

• Fever Ray has released the video for 'Wanna Sip', from her 2017 album 'Plunge'. The album will be available on physical formats from 23 Feb. She also has two UK live shows in London and Manchester coming up in March.

• Unknown Mortal Orchestra have released new single 'American Guilt'. They've also confirmed that they will play four UK shows in May, kicking off at the Roundhouse in London on 24 May.

• Sleigh Bells have released the video for 'Favourite Transgressions', taken from their 2017 EP 'Kid Kruschev'.

• Indoor Pets (fka Get Inuit) have released new single 'So Soon'. "I wanted to just write a love song, and ignore the voices in my head that say that all signs of positivity need to be taken with a pinch of salt", says frontman Jamie Glass.

• Britney Spears is set to play five UK concerts in August, performing her Las Vegas residency show 'Britney: Piece Of Me'. The first will be part of Brighton & Hove Pride on 4 Aug, with the tour finishing at the O2 Arena in London on 24 Aug.

• Lil Simz has announced her second 'Welcome To Wonderland: The Experience' event at The Roundhouse in London on 4 Mar. As well as herself, it'll feature performances from Junglepussy, Iamnobodi, Lioness, Ezra Collective, Tawiah, VanJess, Cleo Sol, OTG, McKay Felt, Corey Wash, DJ Mille and more.

• Jonny Greenwood has got himself an Oscar nomination for Best Original Score for his soundtrack to Paul Thomas Anderson's 'Phantom Thread'.

• Still with the Oscars, among the nominees for Best Original Song are Mary J Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson for 'Mighty River' from 'Mudbound', Sufjan Stevens for 'Mystery Of Love' from 'Call Me By Your Name', plus Common and Diane Warren for 'Stand Up For Something' from 'Marshall'.

• Check out our weekly Spotify playlist of new music featured in the CMU Daily - updated every Friday.

BACK TO THE TOP OF THE BULLETIN

Mogwai sponsor primary school football team
Mogwai are now sponsoring a football team. Specifically the football team of Glasgow primary school St Roch's. The band seemingly stepped in after the school was unable to fund new kits itself.

The school tweeted pictures of the team wearing their new kit yesterday, thanking the band for helping them out.

Drummer Martin Bulloch later explained to the BBC that he and the school's deputy head, Andy McDonald, are old friends. "He just texted me in November and said that the kids had been at a tournament and they were in some old kit and he was looking to get them some new stuff", said Bulloch.

"He asked if we could help out", he added. "I emailed the rest of the boys and they were delighted to do so. There is nothing in the school budget for stuff like that so you can only imagine what they were kicking around in - old kit from years ago".

Mogwai aren't the first band to do such a deal. In 2006, Motorhead sponsored a Lincoln under tens football team.

BACK TO THE TOP OF THE BULLETIN